Benefit Forecasts for the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2024
The Treasury's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) released on 17 December 2024 includes benefit number forecasts as part of the overall fiscal forecasts
The Ministry of Social Development’s (MSD) benefit forecasts were finalised on 14 November 2024. This publication describes the key benefit number forecasts from the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2024.
The last forecast was the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2024, which was published on 30 May 2024. These forecasts are important because they are used to inform Budget decisions and because the New Zealand Government spends a large portion of the Budget on Benefits or Related Expenses. Expenditure on Benefits or Related Expenses typically accounts for around 30 percent of Core Crown Expenses.
For the purpose of this publication, people on a working-age benefit is the total number of people of any age who are receiving Jobseeker Support (excluding Jobseeker Support Student Hardship), Sole Parent Support or Supported Living Payment.
The number of people receiving a working-age benefit is forecast to rise and then fall after January 2026
The number of people receiving a working-age benefit is forecast to rise from around 390,600 people in October 2024 to around 403,700 people in January 2025. This is an increase of around 13,100 people and is in line with the Treasury's economic forecasts of weak economic conditions.
Throughout 2025, the number of people on a working-age benefit is forecast to remain elevated due to increases in people receiving incapacity-related benefits, such as Jobseeker Support – Health Condition and Disability and Support Living Payment. By January 2026 the number of working-age beneficiaries is expected to have remained largely unchanged, at around 403,800 people.
After January 2026 the number of people on a working-age benefit is forecast to fall as the decreasing trend in Jobseeker Support and Sole Parent Support more than offsets the rising number of people on Supported Living Payment. From January 2026 working-age benefits are expected to decrease by around 28,000 to around 375,800 people in June 2029.
Figure 1: Working-age benefit numbers
Figure 1 shows the historic and forecast number of people on a working-age benefit.
The dotted line shows the actual number of people who received a working-age benefit between June 2017 and October 2024. Our forecasts of the number of people expected to receive a working-age benefit at BEFU 2024 and HYEFU 2024 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line respectively.
In October 2024, there were around 390,600 people receiving a working-age benefit, which was around 10,500 more people (2.8 percent) when compared to the BEFU 2024 forecast.
At HYEFU 2024, the number of people on a working-age benefit is expected to continue rising and reach around 403,700 in January 2025. This is around 15,500 (4.0 percent) higher than was expected at BEFU 2024. Throughout 2025 working-age benefit numbers are expected to remain elevated.
After January 2026 the number of people on a working-age benefit is expected to decrease to around 375,800 by June 2029.
Figure 2: Jobseeker Support
Figure 2 shows the historic and forecast number of people receiving Jobseeker Support. The number of people receiving Jobseeker Support includes people receiving Jobseeker Support – Work Ready and Jobseeker Support Health Condition and Disability.
The dotted line shows the actual number of people who received Jobseeker Support between June 2017 and October 2024. Our forecasts of the number of people expected to receive Jobseeker Support at BEFU 2024 and HYEFU 2024 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line, respectively.
In October 2024, there were around 205,000 people receiving Jobseeker Support, which was around 9,300 more people (4.8 percent) when compared to the BEFU 2024 forecast.
At HYEFU 2024, the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support is expected to continue rising and peak at around 215,900 in January 2025. This is around 13,900 (6.9 percent) higher than was expected at BEFU 2024.
After January 2025 the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support is expected to decrease to around 191,600 by June 2029.
The number of people receiving Jobseeker Support – Work Ready is forecast to increase from around 116,100 in October 2024 to around 122,700 in January 2025. After January 2025 the number of people receiving Jobseeker Support – Work Ready is expected to decrease to around 89,800 by June 2029.
